SPORT

Reading the newspapers over the past few weeks, you could have been forgiven for thinking that the most important sporting event this year will take place in South Africa during the summer.

The third Rugby World Cup will be hyped out of all proportion, as correspondents attempt to convince you that a brutal, confused hotch-potch of homoerotic crotch-sniffing and GBH is of any relevance to anyone.

Fact is that Ireland haven’t a hope of progressing further than a seeded quarter-final place and with any luck will succumb to an embarrassing series of humiliations even before then. Anyway, South Africa will probably beat Australia in the final – in which context we can expect some thinly-veiled references about how ‘de blicks’ were actually much happier under the old regime. Bastards!

On the Bogball and Stickfighting front it’s been business as usual, with some spectacular savagery in evidence in Wicklow and Wexford in recent months. Funny thing though, all reports of such carnage at club matches appear in the national newspapers without a by-line for the reporter or photographer. Such modest people down there!

As regards the destination of the two main trophies I couldn’t really care less, just so long as Dublin don’t get too far – because when they do, we have to put up with armchair Man United fans walking around with Arnott’s logos stretched to bursting across their bellies for half the summer. Hell, it wouldn’t give me a moment’s bother if the SM cup left the country and ended up in the United Kingdom again this year. Oh, and I look forward to an invitation to the official opening of the new pleasuredome on Jones Road . . . the usual address will be fine, Danny.

Elsewhere, Michelle Smith and Wayne McCullough have been making tremendous progress in pool and ring and while the hope for the former is that she doesn’t peak too soon before Atlanta next summer, it looks inevitable that the ‘Pocket Rocket’ (is there someone who gets paid for dreaming these things up?) will have a first title belt buckled around his waist before the year is out. And what kind of mental shape will Mike Tyson be in when he gets out of jail? If he’s gone mean, I hope ‘Gorgeous’ George Foreman knows some sturdy pall-bearers.

In athletics, Irish interest will again centre on Sonia O’Sullivan and the possibility of a pre-Atlanta showdown with the dreaded Chinese. Her prospects here look better now than at any time since the demolition job they did on her in the World Championships in ’93. The Chinese are in disarray over drugs and money, and with the apparent collapse of Ma Junchen’s training empire they may not perform to pedigree – probably the right phrase in the circumstances. There will of course be further scandals about steroid abuse. The Chinese will come under fire in this respect, but the most pertinent question is just how long certain high profile stars will be able to avoid detection. It could be a very interesting summer – for the tabloids.

Pausing only to recommend a punt on Ken Doherty making the final of the World Championships in Sheffield, we at last find ourselves on the hallowed ground of Planet Football.

Internationally, the qualifying games for Euro ’96 will dominate the year and I hope that the final game in Lisbon will be a festive formality for both sides. Before that, though there’s the small matter of a clash with England in February, a match which should finally silence that “You’ll never beat the Irish” chant . . .because they probably will.

Gary Kelly and Phil Babb are now oozing confidence but it hasn’t been a good season at all for Paul McGrath, who finally appears to be facing an inevitable decline with no realistic successor coming on stream. Our midfield future looks solid enough but, as we continue to have trouble putting the ball away against class opposition, the fallibility at the heart of the defence may prove costly. Especially when faced with an in-form Shearer, Le Tissier and – most likely – Fowler. It could be a rough night all told, and just the tonic the unthinking troops of Jack’s Army badly need.

In the Premiership, it looks like a three-way fight between Blackburn, Liverpool and The Filth (Manchester United, in case you don’t know – Ed.) and I’d have to say that if I had a bag of money at the moment I’d be more inclined to spend it on Carlsberg than MacEwans or a Viewcam. Liverpool have an ominous air about them for the first time since they shafted Ming The Merciless and even if they don’t take the pennant this time, they’re a good bet for one of the cups.

The untenable UEFA directive concerning the number of Johnny Foreigners a side can have will continue to dog the better sides until someone finally has the bottle to take it to the European Court, a case they’d surely have to win. Imagine going for a job in London only to be told “Sorry,we’d love to have you but you’re a Paddy and we’re only employing people who fly under the flag of St.George”. Race relations tribunals and the newsdesks of every paper wouldn’t know what hit them.

On the domestic scene, the compression at the top end of the Bord Gais National League – just six points separating the top nine clubs at the time of writing – has made for the most exciting tussle in years. All of which is just as well for the League’s administrators, as the organisation of local football is in tatters. Rows over whether transfers were legal or not, unpaid fees, clubs taking each other to court, players in dispute with clubs over such matters as fifteen quid for a B&B, a scandalously bad pitch at Bishopstown which has led to five postponements already and management upheavals at Cork City, Derry City and Shelbourne have all made for the kind of turmoil which true fans can devour with relish in the pubs.

I’d like to think that Shamrock Rovers can take something from this season to erase the horrors of that 7-0 UEFA Cup hammering in Zabrze (they actually ran out of room for the goalscorers’ names on the scoreboard!) and would be more than happy if that happened to be the Hoops’ 25th FAI Cup win. Beyond that, you can take your pick from any club whose name doesn’t indicate an affiliation with the towns of Athlone, Monaghan or Cobh.

And finally, spare a thought for the poor bastards who play for Kilkenny City. As I write they’ve played and lost all fifteen of their matches in the Bord Gais First Division and conceded 51 goals in the process. I wonder do they play D:Ream songs in the dressing room to cheer themselves up?

• George Byrne

Politics

Pundit’s rule: New Year predictions should be dramatically, even flagrantly at odds with conventional wisdom. So, deep breath : EVERYBODY MAY BE GETTING IT WRONG. Don’t be over-concerned with the future of Fianna Fail; this year could be Act 5, Scene 1 in the downfall of Fine Gael.

Well, that was my intro for this piece, written long before the weekend Irish Independent poll that showed this new government berthed in the doldrums with little enthusiasm for its formation. Voters still preferred an election or an Ahern/Spring alliance to the Rainbow. An even worse portent for this government’s survival was Fine Gael’s absolute failure to gain any advantage from Fianna Fail’s crisis.

For Bruton’s party, there was only one bright spot. Despite Mary Harney’s strong Dail performances, the other media-favoured party, the Progressive Democrats, were also becalmed at 4%. My new prediction: John Bruton’s reign may not last the next twelve months.

As attention was riveted on the Dail committee, Fine Gael’s fortunes were being taken for granted. Yet all political futorologists should have followed Sherlock Holmes’ advice in the “Silver Blaze” case: it’s the dog that didn’t bark that counts. In Irish politics, that dumb beast lurked in the form of the opinion polls that weren’t held and published over the last two months. We just didn’t know the support levels of the three parties in this new administration.

It really was most strange. For Irish newspapers, polls have become an easy means to manufacture political headlines. Yet as Fianna Fail’s hold on government crumbled and John Bruton, Dick Spring and Prionsias De Rossa negotiated their new arrangement, no effort was made to decipher the public’s view of their partnership. Was that because the results might have been embarrassing? Despite all Albert’s antics, might a majority still have preferred Labour to realign with Fianna Fail?

The Irish Times and the Independent Group wouldn’t accept such suspicions. They’d likely submit that it was near Christmas and polls are expensive. Even so, since this was the first time a new government was changed without an election, surely some snapshot of public opinion would have been both advisable and instructive?

Still we did know that Fine Gael were distressed by the first set of opinion polls taken after Dick Spring took out Reynolds. Labour and the Progressive Democrats gained while Bruton’s party were still stuck in the mid-Twenties. By almost 2:1, voters expressed a preference for a new arrangement between Labour and Fianna Fail to a Fine Gael-led government.

Certainly, those polls did affect the action. John Bruton’s leadership was briefly threathened and they were also a major factor in Dick Spring’s decision to negotiate with Bertie Ahern. Was it coincidence or just an oversight that no polls were commissioned and published to trouble Bruton and Fine Gael as he began his round of talks?

Up to now, commentators had been looking on the bright side. This freshly-minted Government would gain from a haplessly divided Fianna Fail, while there was sufficient money in the kitty to fund each of its three parties’ pet projects. All three were presumed to have a real interest in showing that they could provide capable government and with less than three years before the next election, divisive stresses could be massaged and managed. As for Fine Gael and John Bruton, he was and still is expected to strive to make his mark as the Taoiseach who reformed and modernized outdated institutions like the Dail.

But till the Independent IMS poll, no political party-pooper was so tactless as to mention the other disturbing scenario that could see John Bruton’s government stumbling towards the sick-bay in twelve months time. For what happens if Fine Gael are even more unpopular come next December?

Already, Bertie Ahern has moved promptly and skilfully to reunite Fianna Fail. There will be no court of King Albert in exile and his barons like Brian Cowen, Charlie McCreevy and Maire Geohegan-Quinn have all been favoured with Shadow Minister status. Ahern has already started his own charm offensive, learning from Garret Fitzgerald that the Irish electorate prefer the sweetly reasonable to the partisan.

Meanwhile, the Progressive Democrats are ideally placed to seriously damage Fine Gael. Mary Harney and Michael McDowell only have to chant their mantra of lower taxes to seduce Fine Gael voters uneasy about consorting with Spring and De Rossa. Should Fine Gael support decline from its already low base, will its more nervous backbenchers show undying loyalty in the division lobbies?

Remember this government only has a majority of five. In the previous Coalition, Labour could indulge its Northside backbenchers who defected over the TEAM Air Lingus crisis but no such luxuries of conscience and special constituency interest can now be afforded.

Certainly a renewal of hostilities at TEAM or some other semi-state company could be the breaking of this government.

Still, give Bruton credit for political cuteness. By favouring Fine Gael traditionalists in his share-out of the government jobs, he hopes to ward off criticism from the party’s most conservative voices. Even so, I don’t expect Alan Dukes to suffer his own political elimination in kindly silence.

Don’t write Fianna Fail off either. Ahern has a quality front-bench of experienced ex-ministers and while he plays Mr. Nice Guy, spokesmen like Cowen and Ray Burke will be his enforcers. A reunited Fianna Fail will spend the summer and autumn nibbling away at Labour and DL support as Bruton’s Fine Gael never could. Don’t be surprised if Fianna Fail pressure also forces Labour’s Dublin backbenchers into solo runs to save their seats.

But the real question for Fianna Fail may not concern the collapse of the Reynolds government. 1995 will also be the year of divorce and abortion referenda. Charles Haughey damagingly forfeited the esteem of younger voters when he undermined the plans of Garret Fitzgerald’s Eighties Coalition in this area. Be sure that Bertie Ahern knows the dangers of repeating that policy of unrestrained opposition – but does the new leader have sufficient authority in his party to follow a more conciliatory path? By his position on such matters, we may get the full measure of Ahern.

In other words, one may not love Fianna Fail but too many commentators are too inclined to dance on its grave. One enduring fact of Irish politics: its core vote is far larger, more resilient and loyal than those who support Fine Gael.

So picture a later poll next winter: Fianna Fail holding firm and Fine Gael in decline; DL support invisible while the Greens continue to advance; Labour worse off than any time when they were in government with Fianna Fail while the Progressive Democrats fly high. Such predictions are far from outlandish. They could also lead to the collapse of John Bruton’s government, far sooner than the last general election cut-off point in late ’97.

Campaigning single-mindedly on the lone issue of tax-cuts, the PD’s really can squeeze Fine Gael in the affluent suburbs and panic its backbenchers. Picture another poll in the run-up to the ’96 budget that rates Fine Gael at about 20% and the PDs closing on 15%. Rattled Fine Gael backbenchers and ministers may then demand tax and service cuts which Labour and DL just can’t deliver. Only Bruton’s desire to be President of the European Community may stop such stresses being terminal for this government. Just don’t expect Fine Gael to be a picture of happy unity next Christmas!

Indeed in their desparation to enter government, Fine Gael may have made a vast strategic error from which they won’t recover. They really should have looked for an election to close the gap beween their 47 and Fianna Fail’s 67 seats. Fianna Fail were dazed, damaged, demoralized and bound to lose badly. They could easily have fallen beneath the 60 seat mark, but now Fianna Fail have a very real opportunity to recover to 75 or even more in the next election.

As for Fine Gael, they could collapse beneath 40. Free-fall could then be their fate. Their error : accepting the conventional wisdom and cosy consensus of those pundits who see Fine Gael not Fianna Fail as the natural party of Irish government. Dublin 4 insights about the rest of Ireland are often flawed.

In the meantime, where the North is concerned, Bruton will not play John Unionist. He can’t afford to cede possession of the peace process to Fianna Fail. He may not speak the same language as Albert Reynolds but he knows that it would be a personal as well as a political catastrophe if the peace process were to capsize during his watch. Indeed he’s already shown sensitivity in meeting and greeting Gerry Adams. Bruton and other Fine Gael spokesmen have also sensibly indicated that the gradual decommissioning of IRA and other paramilitary arms is not the same as their abject surrender. In terms of any eventual settlement, Bruton may be reluctant to sign up for any notional pan-nationalist front but I suspect that he will be more patient and realistic about the demilitarization of the North than many feared or, indeed, hoped.

Still, prepare for turbulence. The Whelehan crisis and the change of government has stalled the peace process while John Major is now even more dependent on the support of James Molyneux and his fellow Unionists at Westminster. Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and their allies in Sinn Fein may have no appetite for a return to the armed struggle. They must know that their current peaceful policies have the support of the vast majority of Sinn Fein voters. Even so, from this spring they could face some fierce opposition from a minority faction within the Republican movement. They can survive but not if they’re unable to wrench concessions from London and Dublin. It may be a miracle if Sinn Fein/IRA can sustain their unity through 1995.

So some final if tentative predictions. John Bruton could surprise people by managing the peace process through some far stormier weather than ever Albert Reynolds encountered. But just like his Longford predecessor, he may discover that the greatest threats to his position as Taoiseach come from the most unexpected sources in the South.

Mounting opposition within Fine Gael may worry John Bruton the most.

• Bill Graham