And slowly, slowly, a crippled beast shuffles towards a new and unknown horizon. The 21st century. We are entering hazardous and uncharted waters. Take nothing for granted.

That the IRA have ceased fire is undeniable. We must all be thankful for that. I am not suggesting that we should be thankful for what may follow in the wake of that decision – because here too nothing is certain. But political action, however turbulent, is infinitely preferable to terror.

That has not yet dawned on loyalist terrorists. Isolated and angry, they are far closer than they understand to alienating the last bastion of support for the union in the UK.

This may well be part of the IRA’s strategy, to appease the population of the Republic and the Irish Americans, and to establish some common bonds with the British government, en route to demonstrating that they are quite reasonable people, especially when compared to the irredentist sectarians of extreme loyalism.

Well, things aren’t necessarily that simple.

For a start, I doubt that the IRA have any accurate understanding of the mood in the Republic. Indeed, I am not entirely sure that Albert Reynolds does either. His recent adoption of the Fianna Fail green flag suggests that he has spotted a gallery worthy of an old trouper’s attention. But rhetoric at a Fianna Fail commemoration bears little relation to reality.

One can’t be certain, but I’d guess that Reynolds understands this, and chooses to ride the wild pony. But the problem is that some of the backwoods tribespersons in Northern Ireland may be a bit less acute.

The Taoiseach needs to keep reminding himself that words and symbols have deeper and darker resonances across the frontier. Both ethnic groups in Northern Ireland share a common preoccupation with scriptures of one kind or another, and a common paranoia of the hidden meaning and the secret sign.

His invitation to unionist leaders should be more than merely a gesture. It should have as much meaning, and be as clearly felt, as his engagement with Sinn Fein. The popular support for this view will show in opinion polls or not, depending on the question which is asked. But make no mistake, that’s what the citizens of the Republic feel.

In that light, UVF bombs on trains are as counterproductive as IRA bombs in England. They only strengthen the people’s resolve. In fact, if the loyalists only opened their ears and their minds, they would realise that they have nothing to fear from the citizens of the Republic, who have no burning ambition to absorb such a complex and intractable sectarian imbroglio as exists in Northern Ireland.

Now, Albert Reynolds can’t say that. But, believe me, he knows it. The citizenry don’t want a united Ireland unless the people of Northern Ireland are themselves united. As it is, it’s Britain’s problem. And good luck to them.

No, the person who has been consistently on the ball throughout is John Hume, and the very vast majority of the Republic’s people are listening to him.

If loyalists don’t want a united Ireland, all they have to do is help create a Northern Ireland which is attractive enough to seduce Catholics in sufficient numbers. It really is very simple. And vice versa. If Sinn Fein want a 32-county Republic, they have to sell their concept, and I mean sell.

Moreover, they have to convince both unionists and the population of the Republic. With respect to all concerned, I am inclined to believe that the latter pose a greater challenge than the former.

Which is an interesting observation, and one not often made. But I’ve been right about these things before. So, I’ll repeat: if a vote were taken in the Republic right now, a majority would vote against a 32-county republic.

Oh sure, they’ll accept it as an aspiration. But as an immediate reality? Forget it. Too much hassle. Too much strife. Let the British deal with it. We’ve enough headaches as it is ...

Actually, the Irish of the Republic are being totally straight. There is no hidden deal, no secret plan. What they want is for the guns to be buried, put away, withdrawn from the equation. Jaw-Jaw is better than War-War.

Irish people are famous the world over for their ability to talk, to establish rapport and communion with one and all. But they aren’t just well-known for their garrulity and eloquence. They are also good listeners: this is the other side of conversation.

Or, to take a rather frivolous example: a friend of mine commented on the simplest way to an Australian or American woman’s heart. “You don’t have to say a lot” he says, “just be a good listener. Laugh at the jokes, and every now and then say ‘tell me more’ or ‘right, very interesting’ or ‘brilliant!’. Their own men are full of shit about themselves. They never listen. A man who does is so unusual, the rest is easy.”

Now there’s all kinds of observations you could make about that. But just accept the analogy in the spirit that’s intended: the Government of the Republic need to be good listeners. So far, and this especially applies to the Taoiseach, they have been good talkers. That was OK in the first few weeks. Now substance must take precedence over shadow.

Similarly, the representatives of the various tribes north of the frontier must learn to listen. For them, this will be the hardest task. Their whole history has been one of not listening, of black and white, of simple truths, of fixed majorities, of incomprehensions, of shouting the loudest.

Can those who have shouted loudest now listen and learn from each other?

Perhaps, but not quickly. Right now, unlike the Irishmen and the American and Australian women, they have no interest in seduction. What they want is victory. Power. Without dissent, without responsibility. You can call it what you like. I’d call it rape.

If the guns are put away, then it’s all brand new. Ironically, that’s the last thing that the tribesmen want. They want the old. But it isn’t like that any more. The 21st century beckons. Why would anyone want to remain in the 17th? And in case that sounds like a swipe at Paisleyism (which it is) it also includes those nationalists who continue to use terms like “settlers”.

Time is merciless. We can’t go back. The only real question is whether we can go forward.