The Celtic Tiger is dead as doornails, if s/he ever really existed in the first place. And those who were so fast to claim the credit for the phenomenon are much less eager to accept blame for its demise.
The truth is, we were the beneficiaries of a series of happy accidents. And the eagerness of the Government of the day to lower taxation is now revealed as something to be regretted.
That was the legacy of the McCreevy/PD tendency. They saw the Irish bubble as a vindication of their policies and with the coffers overflowing, few argued. Take the money and run, we thought.
Now they are hoist with their own petard, as are we in turn. The jaunty forecasts of ongoing full employment are turning out to be so much hot air – public sector recruitment is shoring up the failing industrial sector – and the expansive plans laid out in the National Development Plan are being shelved left and right because the expected money isn’t there now.
The McCreevy/PD alliance trumpets its success in lowering personal taxes. And that they have. But what is given with one hand is taken with another, for example through higher VAT rates. We are also being fleeced by charges, tolls and levies that pay for services once paid for by taxes.
Is this an improvement? It is, if you are wealthy, it isn’t if you are not.
And it’s going to get worse. The present budgetary situation, which is corroding by the day, means that Government ministers are increasingly looking to other sources of funding for activities.
This is especially so in the health area, where spending has increased hugely in recent years, but without any evident improvement in services. But an additional force may be seen at work in the shape of the public health and health promotion movement. This is not a temperance movement as such, but is broadly temperance driven and in some instances prohibitionist.
Public health activists are infected with an acute form of plastic bag syndrome. This is a condition deriving from the success of the levy on plastic bags introduced during the lifetime of the last Government. Those suffering from plastic bag syndrome believe that the same approach can be used to change behaviour in many other areas, such as drinking, smoking and eating.
So, there are proposals to increase taxation on drink (and yes Charlie, excise duty is a tax), and for a salt tax, a fat tax and a sugar tax to make people cut down on fast foods, snacks and the like.
Okay, when you go to America you can see how we could have a serious obesity problem in the future. But fundamentally, this is about our right to enjoy small crass pleasures. The health fascists have no joy in them. They are dull, sober and ultra-sensible people who want to turn Ireland into a Little Sweden.
Concerned Citizens and health professionals go on and on about drink and cigarettes and food. Well, they’ll also warn against Eminem, rap, hip-hop and clubs. I’ve even heard of someone warning against Sex in the City!
Thankfully, there is resistance, even amongst Government supporters, as we can see from the current controversy over the proposed ban on smoking in pubs.
The hospitality industry claim there’ll be job losses. The health side say there won’t. The temperance movement see this as a way of decreasing drinking as well.
The truth is, nobody has a clue what’ll happen. But here’s a guess. Heavy smokers, and especially those with tight budgets, will go private instead of public. People will party in private flats and houses instead of pubs. Bad news for bars, and good news for offies.
This gives a whole new meaning to the term ‘privates’. And it is true that the PDs always say they are in favour of privatisation. I just hadn’t thought of it like this!
There’s a lot wrong with pubs. But equally, there’s some level of control. And the Government gains from the increase in VAT as prices rise. That won’t be the case with smokers’ shebeens and houses. Irish cities and towns will develop a touch of 1920s Chicago, or 1990s Shanghai!
Along the Border, smart Northern bar owners will emphasise the benefits to smokers of crossing over. The UK will recoup some of the excise duty lost on fuel… as you know, the Irish Government benefits greatly from Northern drivers filling up on the Irish side of the border.
Official Ireland’s complacency as to the outcomes is interesting. There’s a kind of plastic bag syndrome hysteria building up, a giddy desire to make the grand gesture, to leap across to the new healthy Ireland without planning or forethought. If you say it, it will be.
Enough of the health fanaticism. In these dark times we need to have a little fun. b
The Hog