So, where do we begin? We could look to the far side of the world, I suppose. To Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea, in Kiribati. That s a nation of atolls strung out over five million square kilometres in the Pacific Ocean. And they have sunk beneath the sea. Or rather, the sea has risen to engulf them.
It s a sign that global warming is moving even faster than was feared. Melting polar ice-caps and glaciers mean higher seas. Which means the end for these small islands.
But it s also a metaphor for Ireland. In these last months before the millennium, one eschews the apocalyptic. But one is still reminded of the legend that St Patrick negotiated a special provision for this island, that it would sink beneath the waves seven years before the end of the world.
That, one feels, was a metaphor as well. But it sums up the general feeling about the impasse, indeed the downright deadlock, that has engulfed the Northern Irish peace process.
Inevitably, in the midst of the anger, the disappointment, the pain of those who hoped for so much, there is the palpable sense that the best way to deal with the bloody place would be to dig a large canal around it and tow it away into the North Atlantic and hope that global warming would do for it as well. Though Icelanders might have something to say about that!
But that view is deeply unfair to the changes that have been made, to the advances that have been achieved, and to the innate decency and hope of a large majority of people there. That their aspirations for their land have been frustrated yet again is clear. So too, I think is their irritation with politicians in general and with the UUP in particular.
Decent people deserve better than platitudes and opportunism. They also deserve better than the jocular dismissiveness of the UUP as they rejected Blair s proposed legislation. Ho-ho-ho, the bourgeois ascendancy had their chortle, as they did when Jeffrey Donaldson tore up an early copy of the Agreement. Woh-ho!
So, what s their problem?
They want a black and white procedure, they want a rigid timetable, they want to be able to say AHA GOTCHA if the IRA doesn t decommission. They want certainty and, viewed from a Republican perspective, they want surrender. The leap of faith is beyond them.
In the last issue I argued that a certain messiness was necessary to achieve the equitable outcome that everyone wanted, rather than clarity. I further argued that a fuzzy logic approach was essential.
Fuzzy logic is a post-modern concept. It is based on the idea that, instead of creating a large and straightforward (black and white) system to deal with an issue or process, you create a system that constantly makes small adjustments and judgements as it goes along. The outcome is faster, more accurate and more economical systems. Just like that.
Think of how you cross the road. You re watching this way and that, making minor but crucial adjustments all the time. If you approached the task of crossing the road as the UUP have approached the latest round of the peace process, you d be hit by a truck sooner rather than later.
Fundamental to the present impasse is the UUP s inability to buck their history. In this they are at one with the Orange Order. Many will argue that, ultimately, they can t accept the idea of power-sharing with Catholics. They deny this, but their forefathers jailed people on flimsier evidence less than a generation ago.
In their demand for a black-and-white process and absolute guarantees, they demonstrate their incapacity to understand history. I m not saying that they can t recite their facts . I m not talking about the narrative of Northern Ireland, nor the events of the last twelve generations. They know all these too well.
But fundamentally that s a creation myth. Very important, but not history, of which there are many definitions. One which I like is a dialogue between the present and the past .
Northern Catholics will refer to pogroms in the 1880s, in the 1920s, in the 1960s. Every 40 years. These have left deep scars on the Catholic psyche, quite the equal of those left by the assassinations of planters by displaced Irish in rural Ulster in the early 17th century.
But as the northern statelet developed, it established its own paramilitary armed force, the B-Specials. They are reviled among nationalists, who argue that they were a brutal sectarian army whose job was to keep the nationalists in their place.
Catholics rapidly came to view the IRA (rightly or wrongly) as a counterweight to the Specials. The sense that another pogrom could be around the corner is a central part of the Catholic reluctance to see the IRA disarm.
You have to understand these fears and hatreds if you are to achieve an understanding, and understanding is essential to reaching peace. But this proved too much for the UUP.
Well, would you expect otherwise from well-heeled stuffed shirts? Were these people brought up on prunes and custard? It makes you wonder can they really be entrusted with a parliament? With authority? With power? I don t know.
They have defied the wishes of the vast majority of people in this island, and of a two-to-one majority in the North. And in so doing, they have played right into the hands of Sinn Fein who will now claim that their analysis of the Northern problem has been vindicated.
And let me make this clear I write as one who has excoriated the IRA for years for their brutality and disregard for the rights of Protestants and the integrity of their history and identity. If you don t believe me, check the files. In some ways, I feel betrayed as well.
I am not sure that we matter to this self-congratulating elite . But they have also pissed off some very powerful figures, Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.
But out of it all, there are glimmers. There is the righteous anger and grief of Seamus Mallon his resignation marked him as a man of honour. David Ervine s contribution was also charged with fury at the intransigence and opportunism of what was unfolding.
So where does this leave us all? Well, nature abhors a vacuum, and one worries about the dark and venomous forces that might begin to seep into the space abdicated by the politicians, and particularly the UUP.
Overall, it s difficult to disagree with Bill Clinton s likening of the main protagonists to two children arguing over who goes first.
Bill was pissed off. He wasn t alone. At a guess, Tony Blair is rightly miffed as well. Let s hope they find a way of sticking it to the lot of them, so the rest of us can get back to living lives free from the fear of a Balkan-style war . . . or of sinking into the sea. n
The Hog