On the one hand, there was Fianna Fail, recommending that there should be another Referendum. On the other, the Labour Party called for the introduction of legislation that would give effect to the decision of the Supreme Court in the X case. And guess what? in the middle, inevitably, were Fine Gael. Well, where else would they be?
So with the major party in Government committing itself to the notion of a Referendum, is it not inevitable that one will take place over the coming months? I wouldn't bet on it. Clearly, the Government is under some pressure, to go the Referendum route, from the four independent T.D.s who support it, and who frequently seem to represent everything that is neanderthal and conservative in Irish life.
In the context, it was to be expected that the Coalition would at least pay lip service to opting for a Referendum. But do you imagine that even Fianna Fail really want to get dragged back into the mire of an abortion vote? No. My gut instinct tells me that the game-plan will be to hold out on the issue, until it's too late. There is, after all, a maximum of another year in this Government, and the likelihood is that they'll opt to go to the people somewhat earlier. I certainly don't think that it's beyond the ingenuity of the great fudgers in F.F. to hold out for that long.
There is one potential nightmare scenario. It might seem like a high risk strategy but what if the Government were to decide to time an abortion Referendum for the day of the next general election? It's a move that would undoubtedly guarantee that every arch-conservative and dingbat in the country would turn out, thus strengthening the likelihood of a strong performance from Fianna Fail who sadly still rely far too heavily on this constituency for anyone's good. If Party strategists figured that it would secure that coveted overall majority for them, then they might just be prepared to take whatever risks would be involved on board. But I still don't think it's going to happen.
What is particularly interesting in this is the position of the PDs. Already, they are a party openly in crisis. Whatever about the colour of their economic policies, their supporters are predominantly liberal on social issues and, in the context, the last thing that the party needs to do, is to appal them with the prospect of a Referendum based on political expediency. Can you imagine how that would go down in Liz O'Donnell's constituency, and among her supporters in particular? If the PDs acquiesce in the push for a Referendum, they could be anihalated. It's too big a risk for them.
One thing is for certain the lobbying of Government by the Anti-Happiness League will intensify over the next few weeks and months. Politicians have been known to capitulate, against their better judgement, in the past. For those who are committed to the idea of legislation on abortion, and more widely to a woman's right to choose, therefore, the imperative is obvious: get organised, get working, and get lobbying. Let the politicians know that your vote will depend on them holding the line. And let them know that there's a vast and growing constituency of people who want to see the availability in Ireland of safe, legal and free abortion.
I participated in a conference run by the Irish Family Planning Association last weekend. It marked the publication for the first time of a book in which Irish women who have had abortions are given the opportunity to tell their own stories. It is a dimension that is often lost in the crazy rhetoric of the abortion debate that, in the end, this issue is about real people, and most often good people, and how they live their lives, and the terrible dilemmas with which they are sometimes confronted. Inside Hot Press this issue, we print one of those stories. It illustrates well the kind of circumstances in which women are forced to make a choice that no one ever wants to have to make, and that no one ever wants to make.
It underlines why it is so important to establish that it is indeed a woman's right to choose. Now, let's go and fight for it.