Hold the party a while!

Those of you with a knowledge of the history of journalism in Ireland will know that over a century ago the editor of the Skibbereen Eagle earned himself eternal fame by warning the Tsar of Russia that the eagle had its eye on him. I’m sure the collapse of Tsarist Russia was greeted with a certain grim satisfaction in West Cork. He had been warned…

Well, that’s the spirit in which this column notes the electoral defeat of George Bush’s Republican Party in the United States and the consequent political demise of Donald Rumsfeld.
The Democrats have control of both Senate and House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. Various Democrats now take over the central chairperson roles of key committees. Bush has to start doing deals.
The general consensus is that the war in Iraq did it for the Republicans, and many opponents of that adventure have been celebrating in the assumption that this defeat marks a watershed. Rumsfeld’s resignation paves the way for a change in emphasis.
Well, the situation has changed for sure but has it necessarily changed for the better? Remember, the displacement of the Tories by New Labour was seen as a new dawn, the start of a new era in Britain. What of that optimism now?
The fact is, the US president is the lynchpin in the whole constitutional system. The Senate is a counterweight. It’s very important, but even an electoral victory such as the Democrats now enjoy is limited in its capacity to force change.
And it may well be that the US voters will decide that one bloody nose is good enough and when they vote in two years time (for other Senate and House seats as well as for a new president) all may change again.
It’s also the case that politics in the US operate to quite different agendas and definitions to those in Europe. Issues such as abortion are for more significant there and cross party lines. Ditto the war, gun control, economic policies, immigration, healthcare and education.
For this reason alone it would be unwise to assume that major change is imminent. Donald Rumsfeld may have dug the hole in Iraq, but his departure doesn’t mean that anyone is going to stop digging any time soon. His successor hails from the CIA…
It’s also the case that when consensus breaks down in America, US political culture turns inward. This prospect was greeted with enthusiasm by a Tehran daily which argued that “when the Americans don’t have problems in their country they create problems for other countries”.
But the truth is that a sustained bout of introspection and infighting in America wouldn’t be a good thing either, especially if it led to protectionism and isolation, both strong tendencies in the US and especially amongst Democrats.
To take one example, the Agriculture Committee is likely to be chaired by Collin Peterson, an avowed supporter of farm subsidies. If he gets his way, where then for the kind of policy change pursued by Bono and Bob Geldof for access by African farmers to global markets?
To take another, much has been made of efforts to legitimise the situation of illegal Irish immigrants in the US. However inconsistent our official stance on this differs from our official stance on our own illegal immigrants, it’s an emotive and problematic issue. It may be that the electoral changes in the US will beget a harsher climate on immigration, not a more liberal one.
And thirdly, and most importantly, with all due regard to philosophy and moral codes, a growth in isolationism could mean a downward turn in the international economic cycle and, crucially for us, a decline in inward investment by American firms in the Irish economy.
These are not predictions. We just don’t know which way things will turn. But you shouldn’t celebrate too hard just because the bad guys got bloodied and their chief enforcer was strapped on his horse and sent packing. It’s quite likely he’s just the fall guy, the one who had to fall on his sword to protect the others.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. But for now, I suppose the Hog, like the Skibbereen Eagle before him, is enjoying the moment (though that’s all it is) when a tyranny reaches the boundary of its ambitions. With luck this also applies to Christian fundamentalism and creationism, two other pernicious American ailments.
If this truly marks the tidemark of Bushism and Rumsfeldism and all these other arrogant and imperial tendencies, then we may yet get back the America with which so many of us have affinity, the place where, automatically, so many illegals went in the 1980s.
And if these election results do that, it’s a very good thing indeed.