Huffing and Puffing with the DUP

Oh, the grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men,
He marched them up to the top of
The hill and he marched them down again.
And when they were up they were up.
And when they were down they were down.
And when they were only half way up,
They were neither up nor down.

The Grand Old Duke of York is popular in Scouts and Guiding. They sing it sitting round campfires, I’m told, standing up and sitting down at specific moments. It has also popped up in team-bonding exercises and stag and hen parties. Nobody knows why.

I may be wrong, but I doubt that it’s sung by members of the Junior Loyal Orange Lodge or republican youths around their myriad bonfires. The rhymes at their disposal are more, er, robust than doggerel devoted to Richard, Duke of York in 1460. The wars from which their anthems derive came later.
Yet, it was what came to mind during the sclerotic negotiations to facilitate the return of devolved government in Northern Ireland. They know all about marching in Northern Ireland, and piping and fife-ing, and by the time the whistle blew everybody was neither up nor down, including Theresa May and Leo Varadkar, both of whom had wasted valuable Brexit time on a wild goose chase to Belfast.
The eponymous Duke was killed at the battle of Wakefield during the Wars of the Roses. He led his men up to his castle at Sandal and then, madly, back down again to attack the opposing forces.
That wouldn’t be the DUP way, mind. Its leadership appears to believe strongly in the old (allegedly) Confucian maxim that “the man who never leaves his farm need not fear what he might meet on the road.” Change is to be resisted. Hold your ground, whether up or down or in between.

HISTORY, BLOOD AND TRADE
That said, they like a deal, and probably couldn’t believe their luck when the numbers added up for them after UK general election. As Katy Hayward wrote in the Guardian last week, “the DUP is a party that loves power but hates responsibility.” They blame Sinn Fein for the failure of the recent talks, just as Brexiteers will blame the EU, not the British, for a hard Brexit, should such come to pass.
For them, doing nothing is more virtuous than doing something, if that something might in some way yield any whiff of success for the other side. And so, there they are, neither up nor down and not even the Grand Old Duke of York will get them back to the top until they’re good and ready.
The failure to return devolved government to Northern Ireland is disappointing as Brexit negotiations approach an extremely sensitive and technically difficult stage. There too, the grand old dukes of the Tory party seem neither up nor down. They’re trína chéile, as might be said in Irish. Their chariot may be swinging low, but the horses are pulling every which way but loose.
There is a palpable fear now that the DUP will lie down across the rails, if they don’t like aspects of the final Brexit deal. They may well fancy screwing the Tory government for more money for pet projects in Northern Ireland, in return for their support, but whatever happens you can bet that they’ll be exercising power rather than responsibility.

That’ll be a big problem when it comes to a ‘frictionless’ border. Of course, Brexit is more English than British and the English didn’t think of the border when they voted for it. They were charmed by the notion that they could reverse to how things used to be. The delusion that uncoupling from the EU might magically recreate the golden glow of empire is central to Brexit’s appeal.
Brexiteers seem to believe that the Irish are closer to the UK than they are to any other country, for reasons of history, blood and trade, and that Ireland’s interests are best served by mediating for the UK to get a bespoke deal – one better than, for example, Norway’s – even if that means the EU then being pursued by other countries for new agreements to match the new British deal.
Because they think of us as still really part of their ‘family’ – or among their subjects, a cynic might observe – they just don’t seem to get the border and why avoiding its return is so central to the Irish and the EU. One suspects that they think it’s much the same as the border with Scotland. If so, the lack of geopolitical and constitutional awareness is breathtaking.

SEASONAL FARMWORKERS LEAVE
Some also think Ireland should abandon Europe and rejoin the Commonwealth. Hence the recent visit by Nigel Farage. They’re not listening to reality. The Irish are committed to Europe. The balance of trade runs that way for us now. Furthermore, the EU has created a framework within which Ireland can both defend and pursue its own interests. We’re not going back to the past.
Brexit has already seriously damaged Britain’s horticulture sector. Last week there were a number of reports on how growers had left crops to rot in the fields because they can’t get seasonal workers. The shortfall was 12.5% and it’s growing fast (up to almost 16% in December).
They’re not coming because of Brexit itself – and also because of the intolerance it has licensed. 65% of seasonal farmworkers are from Romania and Bulgaria and 32% from eight other EU countries. Fewer than 1% of are British.

Some British growers say they’re already out of time. Harvest plans are multi-annual. Take the giant fruit growing company Haygrove’s Farm. Its annual turnover is £101m. It has just shed 200 UK seasonal jobs, and is relocating some raspberry and blueberry-growing to Yunnan province in China.
We’re not going to cut off our nose to spite our face – but secure as they now feel, that may be exactly what the DUP has done. Who knows what farmers in Northern Ireland will be saying as Brexit bites? And will UK companies initiate a recruitment drive in Northern Ireland to fill the vacancies created by Brexit? And if that were on a significant scale, what might be the longterm effect in Northern Ireland?
We don’t have answers to those questions up here on Hog Heights. But we think that the last 18 months have rearranged things in ways that could yet have extraordinary, unforeseen long-term effects.

Add the failure to get power-sharing in the North back on track to the brutal impact of Brexit and we could have a right royal mess on our hands...

A little Brit of what you fancy? Will Ireland truly fall for Farage’s snake-oil?