WHERE S the emotion? Where s the elation? Where s the celebration? It s an odd sensation indeed. There s a feeling that the words of acclamation should come pouring out but they don t. They don t and they won t.
On Saturday morning, the IRA announced a ceasefire and just 400 people turned up at a Sinn Fiin rally in West Belfast. It can t be that no one gives a shit, because they do. It can t be that the mass of people in West Belfast are hostile to the decision, because they aren t. But the euphoria that greeted the August 31st 1994 ceasefire was a once-off. That ceasefire came and after 16 months it went. Now, people are understandably wary. Now people are understandably unwilling to invest too much hope in what a ceasefire has to offer. The last one broke down 17 months ago, and the intervening period has been deeply, relentlessly, depressing.
Short of taking a mass dose of prozac, or smoking a few million of the biggest bamboozlers Sam Snort could manufacture for the purpose, the people of Northern Ireland are unlikely to find a way out of that frame of mind for some considerable time.
The last ceasefire revealed just how intractable the problems in Northern Ireland are. Things have moved on with the election of a Labour government in Britain, the positive, proactive approach of Tony Blair and the new Northern Secretary Mo Mowlam affording some grounds for cautious optimism. But at grass roots level, the bitterness and hostility between the different sides seems as entrenched as ever. No wonder there s a feeling of anti-climax in the air.
But that feeling of anti-climax shouldn t be allowed to obscure the real significance of what has taken place. The ultimate removal of the gun from politics in Ireland is a desirable end in itself, and the renewal of the IRA ceasefire is potentially a crucial step in that direction. The brutal murder of RUC officers John Graham and David Johnston in Lurgan was utterly callous, wrong and indefensible. The shooting of the Catholic teenager Bernadette Martin at the home of her Protestant boyfriend in Aghalee, Co. Antrim was equally grotesque. It is absolutely imperative to find a way of ensuring that appalling, barbaric acts of this kind are no longer part of the daily reality that people have to live with in the North. The IRA ceasefire creates at least the possibility that this, finally, can be achieved.
So far, the Unionist response to the news has been predictably sour and unconstructive. On the face of it, David Ervine of the Progressive Unionist Party has responded most positively, but as yet there is no suggestion, even from him, that the word compromise has entered the lexicon of the Unionist or loyalist political parties.
The hope must be that events will overtake that kind of gloomy conclusion, and that David Trimble and the Ulster Unionist Party at least will agree to enter all-party talks in September, irrespective of the lack of guarantees on decommissioning from the IRA. But what if they don t?
I think it s worth pointing out that there has been a very substantial shift in the position of the Sinn Fiin leadership, over the last five years. It is quite clear from statements made by Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and others within Sinn Fiin that, while a united Ireland remains the theoretical goal, they are prepared to accept a political settlement which offers them much less.
I have no doubt about the bona-fides of the Sinn Fiin President, Gerry Adams, in relation to this. I believe that he is genuinely committed to pursuing the political objectives of Sinn Fiin through peaceful, democratic means. I believe that he has demonstrated a willingness to take substantial political risks in the cause of bringing about an end to violence. So far, he and Martin McGuinness have carried Sinn Fiin with them. So far they have carried the IRA with them too, despite the clear indications that a united Ireland cannot and will not be achieved through the political process for many, many years, if ever.
There is a desperate need now for Unionism to produce leaders who are equally committed to achieving an accommodation between the conflicting factions. And if the established political parties fail to meet this challenge, then they must be swept aside by the ordinary people of Northern Ireland, recognising the shared interest which they all have in arriving at a resolution of the 76 year conflict that is capable of guaranteeing a lasting peace.
The British government have a vital role to play in pushing the process forward, and in creating the framework within which dialogue can take place. The Irish government bears a similar kind of responsibility. But ultimately, the common cause which people in Northern Ireland share on economic and social issues must take precedence over the differences inculcated among them by the separate traditions history has imposed on the region.
Are the unionist parties going to attempt to stand in the way? And are the ordinary citizens of Loyalist or Protestant background going to let them?
The IRA ceasefire is a huge step in the right direction. No shibboleth should be left unquestioned in the drive to ensure that there can be and that there will be no turning back.
Niall Stokes
Editor