A decade ago optimism was high. In contrast, as we rattle into 2025, the world feels like a bleak place.

Yeah sure, that optimism turned out to be misplaced. But still, we really did seem set for a better world. Ireland had just become the first country to introduce same-sex marriage by popular vote. We were gearing up to commemorate the 1916 Rising.

Technology was our friend, it seemed: progress wasn’t just possible, it was ordained. Happy days. But now?

Much of the world, including Europe, is in reverse. The Four Horsemen ride again. Such is the global tumult that Ireland seems an oasis of calm and moderation.

That’s not to underestimate the huge issues that we are facing, in housing, health, infrastructure and prices. But everything’s relative, right?

Globally, the forecast is for heavy going in 2025 – and beyond…

A HOT DOG IN THE WHITE HOUSE

Right now Donald Trump is the hot dog, the self-styled Alpha of misogynistic, bullying Alphas.

His election sadly reflects the democratic decision of a majority of US citizens, so we have to live with it. Make no mistake: his victory was total, taking the house and the Senate, as well as winning the popular vote. This is America.

Effectively he’s like an absolute monarch for four years and, like most absolute monarchs throughout history, he harbours imperial ambitions. Or so it seems from his comments on Greenland, Panama and Canada.

Psychologists have analysed him, using words like narcissist, egotist and psychopath. He is not a man of letters. His knowledge of the world is mediated through his phone or four-ball chats with his courtiers.

There’s no room for dissent or alternative opinions. Everyone else is there to do his bidding. Sit up and behave. The better you make him feel about himself the more he likes you.

Trump’s second term – which started o January 20 – will be like his first only worse. There’ll be more spite and spleen. There’ll be grudge, grime and grift. It will be ugly. And the rich will certainly get a lot richer.

The drift away from mutual respect and co-operation internationally is likely to continue. Democracy will be threatened. Many Europeans will hold their noses, keep their counsel and remind themselves that what goes around comes around.

But not always.

THE BROLIGARCHY ARE CIRCLING

The bad news gets worse. There’s more than one hot dog in the packet.

The last decade has seen global politics tilt increasingly to the right. Extremist, hostile nationalism is back.

Numerous things fuelled its rise, including the long-term impact of the banking meltdown, the global refugee crisis and the Covid pandemic. But social media has been central, with its poisonous algorithms, herding tendencies, echo chambers, amplification of nastiness, and the viral way that lies and calumnies can be spread and truth denied.

Ten years ago Silicon Valley seemed pretty mellow, and supportive of equal rights, combating climate change and making the world a better place. That was to misunderstand it. Behind the Mr. Nicey vibe, the owners were involved in an even bigger land-grab than when the new European settlers set out to steal land all across the USA from Native Americans.

The façade of having a commitment to community is gone. Silicon Valley has abruptly flipped to the right – where some might say it always belonged. The bros are now funding Big Hot Dog . They are bowing and scraping before him. They will pour more money into his coffers. And there will be a pay-off.

As Tessio says in The Godfather, it’s just business.

He will reduce regulation. Enable the to use the data they have purloined to extract even more profit and build bigger fortunes, while real wages stagnate.

These Lords of the Domain call each other bro, so let’s call them broligarchs.

They’re pretty much all guys. There’s a lot of testosterone in play. There’s sublimated aggression. They try to outdo each other in gyms and bars. They brag about conquests.

They hang out at sweaty ‘mannish’ events like wrestling and MMA. They stream action movies and more or less live online. They love VR and are avid gamers.

They sport a fair number of psychological twists and personality issues too.

Watching them reminds us on Hog Hill of how prescient, and culturally influential, Marvel comics and their very many spinoffs and imitations have been.

Academics agree. Brett Pardy wrote about “The Militarization of Marvel’s Avengers” in Studies in Popular Culture, in 2019.

The thing is, just as the real and virtual worlds are merging, so too are fact and fiction, truth and untruth.

How long does it take for a pack of Big Hot Dogs to re-evolve to wolves, coyotes or dingos? As 2025 unfolds, it looks like we’re about to find out.

Credit: Sasha Marmur

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE MOB

I’m sure you can sense our regret at how far the online world has sunk into self-absorption, vituperation, rage, bigotry and exclusion.

How can digitally literate people, and young men in particular, be so easily deceived by spurious trash and conspiracy theories? Or, in a world where a billion people are exposed to war, be convinced somehow that they’re the victims?

What’s gone awry that so many can, or feel they have to, take shelter in the mob, whether online or on the streets?

It is quite clear that the Hot Dog in the White House has played the crowd with a certain kind of carnival barker’s skill. But the broligarchs have been key, amplifying his message, landing it with those most susceptible – and raking in the profits from all that twisted ‘engagement’.

There’s a whole field of psychology devoted to mobs, to “the power of the crowd” and how people can do things in a crowd that they’d never think of doing solo.

Social and emotional contagion is important here. Likewise, the nature of leadership. And, of course, the character of group identity, which can build unity and solidarity – but can also foster anger and hatred.

“Perception of threat” is cited as the most frequent cause of violence and group aggression (verbal as well as physical) in society. And that can be fomented easily on social media by any bad actor with enough money to pour into the cesspit.

As Fats Waller sang, “It ain’t the meat, it’s the motion.”

So, this is what’s happening – and, it is growing in volume and venom, reaching critical mass. With Trump and his squalid hit squad in office, the cynical manipulation of the crowd, is likely to become more prevalent, coursing around the world like a tsunami.

There was a time when you could debate within common parameters. Facts counted. Now it’s just spurious dogma, twisted opinions, schoolyard yelling, bullying, abuse, disinformation and downright lies.

A TRULY EVIL GUY

Well, there is too much at stake to allow this drift to continue unchallenged. It’ll need grit and wit, boot and bite, creativity and innovation, light rather than heat. Oh, and regulation.

Also, while intelligence is worthy, cunning is vital, choosing the battlegrounds to fight on, not those favoured by opponents. The darker the times the brighter the arts must burn.

Meanwhile, there are already internal divisions among the Far Right.

Musk has cancelled Nigel Farage. In turn, Trump’s former guru Steve Bannon turned on Elon Musk a few weeks back.

The Tesla boss is a “truly evil guy, a very bad guy,” said Bannon, sounding like a Trump cover version. For good measure he asked what a white South African was doing making comments on what goes on in the United States and inviting Musk to “go back to South Africa.”

Well!! Aithníonn ciaróg ciaróg eile, eh? It takes one to know one.

2025 will be interesting. Just don’t count on it being pleasant…