A new opinion poll – conducted by Lansdowne Market Research, and commissioned by the pro-choice Abortion Reform group – has suggested significant support in Ireland for abortion outside those circumstances where the mother’s life is physically at risk.

The poll has, however, left its validity open to criticism, by including teenagers as young as 15 among those surveyed. Ivana Bacik of Abortion Reform is keen to point out that this inclusion is entirely legitimate, as 15-year-olds can and do become pregnant. Nevertheless, this polling technique departs from convention in that other polling companies – such as MRBI – only survey those aged 18 or over (that is, those eligible to vote).

The poll asked respondents to choose one of three propositions on the issue. The options and results were as follows:-

A) Leave the existing legal situation as it is, where a woman is entitled to have an abortion only where her life is put at risk by the pregnancy (whether for physical reasons or because of the risk of suicide) but where there is no legislation setting out the procedures to allow her access to that entitlement (i.e. it has to be done in England). 36% were in favour of this approach.

B) Introduce legislation setting out the procedures to enable a woman to access an abortion where her life is at risk, either for physical reasons or because of the risk of suicide. That is, introduce legislation in the Republic based on the Supreme Court ruling on the ‘X’ case. Again, 36% were in favour of this approach.

C) Propose an amendment to the Constitution to prohibit abortion except where the pregnancy poses a physical threat to the life of the woman (that is, abortion would no longer be permitted where the woman’s life is under threat because of the risk of suicide.) 17% were in favour of this approach.

D) Refused to reply: 12%.

Abortion Reform claim that these results suggest that another referendum on the issue would be deeply unpopular with the electorate, as only 17% supported the third (government-favoured) option. As Ivana Bacik says “We felt the poll clearly shows the majority of people don’t want another referendum and it would be a very bad idea. The government should introduce legislation in accordance with the ‘X’ case ruling immediately to prevent cases such as the ‘X’ case or the ‘C’ case from ever happening again. Ultimately, we would seek to appeal such narrow legislation and introduce much wider access – but legislating for the ‘X’ case has to be the first step.”

It must be pointed out, however, that the question of a referendum was not asked directly in the poll, and the conclusion that only one-sixth of the electorate support an abortion referendum contradicts sharply with an IMS survey in January – conducted on behalf of the Pro-Life Campaign – which showed 78% in favour of a referendum. An MRBI poll carried out for The Irish Times in November 1999 also indicated that a majority of the electorate wanted a referendum on the issue.

Certainly, though, the Lansdowne poll is comprehensive in other areas, showing that 22% of those polled believe that all of the 6,000 women giving Irish addresses in British abortion clinics last year should have access to abortions in the Republic. A further 40% thought that some of these women should be allowed access to abortions here – thereby indicating high levels of support for legislation to permit abortion in certain circumstances.

The results from another part of the poll reflect the complexity of Irish thinking on abortion, showing for example that 47% are in favour of abortion in cases involving incest or rape, and 23% are in favour when the foetus is suffering from a disorder “which is incompatible with life”. Only 19% of those polled agreed with the statement that abortion should be permitted in Ireland whenever the woman feels that this is the correct choice to make, irrespective of the reasons.

Clearly, the most important conclusion to be drawn from the Lansdowne poll is that the wording of any future legislation, or any further referendum, must allow for such complexity if it is to be accepted by the electorate.